West Valley Fault Metro Manila: Complete Risk Assessment & Preparedness Guide for 'The Big One' 2025

Introduction: The Threat Beneath Metro Manila

The West Valley Fault (WVF) is a 100-kilometer active fault line that cuts directly through Metro Manila, passing beneath some of the most densely populated areas in the Pilipinas. Scientists estimate a magnitude 7.2 earthquake—dubbed "The Big One"—could occur along this fault at any time, potentially affecting over 14 million people and causing unprecedented devastation to the nation's capital region.

This comprehensive guide examines the West Valley Fault system, its historical activity, modern risk assessment, potential impacts of "The Big One," and critical preparedness measures for Metro Manila residents, businesses, and government agencies.

Understanding the West Valley Fault System

Geological Context and Formation

The West Valley Fault is part of the larger Valley Fault System (VFS), which includes both the West Valley Fault and East Valley Fault (also known as the Marikina Valley Fault). These fault lines are strike-slip faults, meaning they move horizontally rather than vertically, similar to California's San Andreas Fault.

Key Geological Characteristics

• Fault Type: Right-lateral strike-slip fault with vertical displacement component
• Length: Approximately 100 kilometers (West Valley Fault segment)
• Depth: Extends to approximately 20 kilometers below surface
• Movement Rate: Estimated 2-3 millimeters per year horizontal displacement
• Classification: Active fault (moved within last 10,000 years)
• Tectonic Setting: Located within Pilipino Mobile Belt, influenced by Pilipino Sea Plate subduction

Geographic Extent: Cities and Municipalities Affected

The West Valley Fault traverses 15 cities and municipalities across Metro Manila and nearby provinces, passing directly beneath residential areas, commercial districts, and critical infrastructure.

Complete List of Affected Areas (North to South)

1. Bulacan Province: Rodriguez (Montalban), San Jose del Monte
2. Quezon City: La Mesa, Fairview, Greater Lagro, Commonwealth, Diliman, UP Campus
3. Marikina City: Western portions including industrial areas
4. Pasig City: Eastern sections near Marikina boundary
5. Makati City: Eastern portions including residential areas
6. Taguig City: Western Fort Bonifacio Global City, residential zones
7. Muntinlupa City: Multiple barangays including Alabang
8. Cavite Province: Dasmariñas, Silang (southern extent)

Historical Activity and Movement Record

Documented Historical Earthquakes

While modern instrumental records for Metro Manila only extend back to the early 1900s, paleoseismic studies and historical accounts provide evidence of significant earthquakes along the Valley Fault System.

Paleoseismic Evidence from Trenching Studies

PHIVOLCS and Japanese researchers conducted extensive paleoseismic studies along the West Valley Fault between 1999 and 2019, excavating trenches to examine geological evidence of past earthquakes.

Key Findings:

• Last major movement: Approximately 1400-1600 AD (400-600 years ago)
• Evidence of 3-4 major displacement events in past 5,000 years
• Recurrence interval: Approximately 400-600 years between major events
• Per-event displacement: 2-3 meters of horizontal movement
• Current seismic gap: WVF has not ruptured in >400 years, approaching or past typical recurrence interval

"The Big One": Scenario Analysis and Potential Impacts

PHIVOLCS Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS)

In collaboration with JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency), PHIVOLCS conducted the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, most recently updated in 2023. This comprehensive study modeled the impacts of a magnitude 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault.

Scenario Parameters

• Magnitude: 7.2 (worst-case credible scenario)
• Epicenter: Along West Valley Fault beneath Quezon City/Marikina
• Rupture Length: Approximately 70-80 kilometers
• Time of Occurrence: Daytime scenario (3:00 PM, maximum population exposure)
• Ground Shaking Duration: 1-2 minutes of strong shaking
• Surface Rupture: Expected along entire fault trace through Metro Manila

Projected Casualties and Injuries

Note: Higher nighttime fatalities due to building collapses while residents are sleeping. Daytime injuries higher due to people being in commercial areas, transportation, and workplaces.

Building Damage Assessment

Residential Structures

Critical Infrastructure Damage

• Hospitals: 40-50% of Metro Manila hospitals significantly damaged, 10-15% non-functional
• Fire Stations: 30-40% damaged, reducing emergency response capability
• Schools: >1,000 school buildings severely damaged, affecting 2+ million students
• Government Buildings: 25-35% of critical government facilities damaged
• Shopping Malls: Multiple major shopping centers severely damaged or collapsed

Lifeline Systems Impact

Water Supply Systems

Metro Manila's water supply faces catastrophic disruption:

• Manila Water and Maynilad Infrastructure: 50-60% of pipelines damaged in high-intensity zones
• La Mesa Dam: Critical assessment needed; potential for dam damage affecting 12 million people
• Treatment Facilities: 40-50% non-operational immediately post-earthquake
• Recovery Time: 6-12 months for full restoration, 3-6 months for partial service
• Affected Population: 10-12 million people without clean water for weeks to months

Electric Power Grid

• Transmission Lines: Multiple towers and substations damaged, especially near fault trace
• Distribution Network: 60-70% of Metro Manila experiencing power outages
• Power Plants: Several facilities automatically shut down for safety inspection
• Recovery Time: 2-4 weeks for 50% restoration, 2-3 months for 80% restoration

Transportation Infrastructure

Communications Systems

• Cellular Networks: 50-60% of cell towers damaged or without power, massive congestion on surviving network
• Internet Infrastructure: Fiber optic lines severed along fault trace, data centers experiencing power issues
• Landline Telephone: 60-70% of landlines non-functional due to equipment and line damage
• Radio/TV Broadcasting: 40-50% of stations off-air due to antenna damage or power loss

Economic Impact Assessment

Direct Economic Losses

Indirect Economic Losses

• Business Interruption: ₱500-800 billion in lost productivity during first 6 months
• GDP Impact: Estimated 10-15% reduction in national GDP for 1-2 years
• Employment: 1.5-2 million jobs temporarily or permanently lost
• Tourism Revenue: 80-90% decline for 6-12 months
• Supply Chain Disruption: Nationwide impacts as Metro Manila is economic hub

Modern Monitoring and Early Warning Systems (2025)

PHIVOLCS Monitoring Infrastructure

PHIVOLCS has significantly enhanced monitoring capabilities for the West Valley Fault and broader Metro Manila region.

Seismic Monitoring Network

• Seismograph Stations: 25+ stations within 50km of fault, providing high-resolution monitoring
• Strong-Motion Accelerometers: 40+ instruments in Metro Manila to measure ground motion intensity
• Real-Time Data Transmission: Continuous telemetry to PHIVOLCS central processing
• Automated Alert Generation: EEW system can detect and characterize earthquake within 10-15 seconds

Geodetic Monitoring (Ground Deformation)

• GPS Network: 15 continuous GPS stations along fault zone measuring millimeter-scale movements
• InSAR Pagsubaybay sa Satellite: Synthetic aperture radar from multiple satellites tracking surface deformation
• Tiltmeters: Instruments detecting micro-tilting of ground surface
• Current Status (2025): No anomalous deformation detected; fault continues slow steady movement

Earthquake Early Warning System for Metro Manila

As of 2025, the Pilipinas operates a limited Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system with plans for expansion.

How EEW Works for West Valley Fault

1. Detection (0-5 seconds): Seismographs detect P-waves (fast, non-destructive waves)
2. Analysis (5-10 seconds): AI algorithms determine magnitude, location, expected shaking intensity
3. Alert Distribution (10-15 seconds): Warnings sent to government, critical infrastructure, mobile apps
4. Warning Time: 5-45 seconds of advance warning before destructive S-waves and surface waves arrive

Warning Time by Location (for WVF rupture beneath Quezon City):

• Quezon City (epicentral area): 5-10 seconds warning
• Makati/BGC: 15-25 seconds warning
• Manila Bay Area: 20-35 seconds warning
• Outlying areas (Cavite, Bulacan): 30-45 seconds warning

Risk Assessment: Who Is Most Vulnerable?

High-Risk Building Categories

1. Pre-1992 Unreinforced Masonry and Concrete Structures

Buildings constructed before the 1992 National Structural Code of the Pilipinas (post-1990 Luzon earthquake) lack modern seismic design provisions.

Characteristics of Vulnerable Buildings:

• Unreinforced hollow block or brick walls
• Weak concrete (low cement content, inadequate curing)
• Insufficient or improperly detailed steel reinforcement
• Soft story configuration (open ground floor for parking or commercial use)
• Heavy roof systems without proper anchorage
• No seismic joints between adjacent buildings

2. Informal Settlements and Substandard Housing

Approximately 40-50% of Metro Manila's population lives in informal settlements with structures highly vulnerable to earthquake damage.

• Makeshift construction using salvaged materials
• No engineering design or building permits
• Built on steep slopes, waterways, or unstable soil
• Dense clustering increasing collapse and fire hazard
• Limited emergency access for rescue operations

3. Katamtamang Taas na Gusali (5-15 stories) from 1970s-1990s

This building stock is particularly vulnerable due to outdated design codes and deterioration.

• Reinforced concrete mga frames with unreinforced infill walls
• Insufficient ductility and energy dissipation capacity
• Potential for soft-story collapse mechanism
• Aging concrete with reduced strength and increased brittleness
• Corrosion of steel reinforcement, especially in coastal areas

Critical Infrastructure at Risk

Water Infrastructure

La Mesa Dam - Critical Vulnerability:

• Location: Directly adjacent to West Valley Fault trace
• Age: Constructed 1929 (nearly 100 years old)
• Capacity: Supplies water to 12 million people in Metro Manila
• Seismic Vulnerability: Dam predates modern seismic design standards
• Consequence of Failure: Catastrophic flooding downstream, loss of water supply for months
• Current Status (2025): Seismic assessment ongoing, no immediate retrofitting plans announced

Healthcare Facilities

Hospitals face dual challenge: structural damage and overwhelming patient influx.

Healthcare Surge Capacity Crisis: Even hospitals that remain structurally sound will face:

• 100,000+ injured requiring immediate medical attention
• Loss of power requiring generator operation (fuel supply issues)
• Water supply disruption affecting sterilization and sanitation
• Medical supply shortages as logistics networks fail
• Healthcare worker casualties and inability to reach facilities

Socio-Economic Vulnerability Factors

Population Density and Building Occupancy

Comprehensive Preparedness Guide for Metro Manila Residents

Individual and Family Preparedness

Know Your Risk Level

1. Determine if you live/work near the fault:
   • Check PHIVOLCS fault maps (available online)
   • Buildings within 5 meters of fault trace face ground rupture risk
   • Buildings within 200 meters face very high shaking intensity
2. Assess your building's vulnerability:
   • Construction year (pre-1992 buildings highest risk)
   • Building type (unreinforced masonry most vulnerable)
   • Soft story configuration (parking/commercial ground floor)
   • Previous structural damage or poor maintenance
3. Identify safer alternatives:
   • Open spaces for evacuation (within 5 minutes walking distance)
   • Structurally sound buildings nearby (post-2010 construction preferred)
   • Designated evacuation sites in your barangay

Essential Preparedness Actions (To Do Now)

1. Structural Safety Measures:

• Secure heavy furniture, appliances, and water heaters to walls with L-brackets
• Install latches on cabinet doors to prevent contents from falling
• Move beds away from windows and heavy objects that could fall
• Ensure gas tanks and cylinders are properly secured and have automatic shutoff valves
• Identify "safe zones" in each room (under sturdy desks/tables, away from windows)
• For homeowners: Consider professional seismic retrofit evaluation for pre-1992 structures

2. Emergency Supplies (72-Hour Minimum, 1-2 Weeks Recommended):

3. Family Emergency Plan:

• Establish out-of-town emergency contact (local phones may not work)
• Designate meeting points: one near home, one outside kapitbahayan
• Ensure all family members know how to "Drop, Cover, and Hold On"
• Practice earthquake drills quarterly with entire household
• Know how to shut off gas, water, and electricity
• Plan for special needs (elderly, children, persons with disabilities, pets)
• Establish communication protocol when separated

4. Financial Preparedness:

• Obtain earthquake insurance (highly recommended for Metro Manila residents)
• Maintain emergency fund equivalent to 3-6 months expenses
• Keep physical copies of important financial documents
• Take photos/videos of property and valuables for insurance claims
• Know your insurance coverage and claim procedures

During "The Big One": Critical Actions

If Indoors When Earthquake Strikes

1. Drop, Cover, and Hold On (immediately):
   • DROP to hands and knees (prevents being knocked down)
   • Take COVER under sturdy desk or table; if none available, against interior wall away from windows
   • HOLD ON to shelter and be prepared to move with it
   • Protect head and neck with arms
2. Stay Put Until Shaking Stops:
   • DO NOT run outside during shaking (falling debris hazard)
   • If in bed, stay there and cover head with pillow
   • If in elevator, do not use; if already inside, press all floor buttons and exit at first opportunity
3. After Shaking Stops:
   • Check yourself and others for injuries
   • Assess building damage; evacuate if severely damaged
   • Use stairs only (elevators may be damaged)
   • Be alert for aftershocks (can occur for days or weeks)

If Outdoors When Earthquake Strikes

• Move away from buildings, power lines, trees, and streetlights
• Find open area and drop to ground to avoid being knocked down
• Stay there until shaking stops
• If driving: Pull over safely, stop, and stay in vehicle; avoid overpasses, bridges, power lines

Special Situations

In High-Rise Building:

• DO NOT use elevators
• Drop, cover, hold on; do not attempt to run down stairs during shaking
• After earthquake, use stairs to evacuate if building is damaged
• Follow building emergency procedures

In Shopping Mall or Public Space:

• Drop and cover; avoid glass displays and unsecured items
• Do not rush to exits (stampede hazard)
• Follow staff instructions for evacuation after shaking stops

On Public Transportation (Bus, Jeepney, Train):

• Stay seated if possible; hold on to grab bars
• Protect head and neck
• Wait for vehicle to stop before attempting to exit
• For MRT/LRT: Follow conductor instructions; trains will emergency stop

Post-Earthquake Actions and Recovery

Immediate Post-Earthquake (First Hour)

1. Safety Check:
   • Check for injuries; provide first aid if trained
   • Assess building damage; evacuate if unsafe
   • Check for fire hazards; smell for gas leaks
   • Turn off gas, electricity if damage detected
2. Communication:
   • Send brief text messages (more likely to go through than calls)
   • Use social media to update status (conserve phone battery)
   • Listen to battery-powered radyo for official information
   • Do not make non-essential calls (keep lines clear for emergencies)
3. Aftershock Preparedness:
   • Expect aftershocks; be ready to drop, cover, hold on again
   • Evacuate damaged buildings before aftershocks
   • Aftershocks can continue for days, weeks, or months

First 24 Hours

• Account for all family members; use designated meeting points
• Assess and document property damage (photos for insurance)
• Begin using emergency mga suplay; ration water and food
• Avoid damaged areas; stay clear of fallen power lines
• Monitor official information sources (PHIVOLCS, NDRRMC, local government)
• Assist neighbors if safe to do so, especially elderly and disabled
• Do not spread unverified information or rumors

First Week

• Register with barangay for aid and evacuation center assignment if needed
• Cooperate with emergency responders; follow official guidance
• Conserve resources; expect limited access to food, water, fuel
• Maintain hygiene to prevent disease outbreak in crowded conditions
• Begin documentation for insurance claims and government assistance
• Check on neighbors, particularly vulnerable populations
• Participate in community mutual aid and volunteer efforts if able

Government and Institutional Preparedness

National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC)

NDRRMC coordinates all national-level disaster preparedness and response for "The Big One" scenario.

Pre-Disaster Preparedness Initiatives (2025)

• Metro Manila Shake Drill: Quarterly earthquake drills involving millions of participants
• Critical Infrastructure Retrofitting: Ongoing assessment and strengthening of government buildings, schools, hospitals
• Stockpiling: Pre-positioned relief goods, medical mga suplay, rescue equipment
• Contingency Planning: Detailed response plans for various earthquake scenarios
• International Coordination: Mutual assistance agreements with ASEAN and bilateral partners

Response Structure for Major Metro Manila Earthquake

NDRRMC operates through a tiered incident command system:

1. National Level: NDRRMC (Office of Civil Defense) provides overall coordination and resource allocation
2. Regional Level: Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (RDRRMC) for NCR
3. City/Municipal Level: Local DRRMC for each affected LGU implements ground operations
4. Barangay Level: Barangay Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Committee (BDRRMC) provides first response

Local Government Preparedness

Quezon City (Highest Risk LGU)

As the most populous city directly on the West Valley Fault, Quezon City has implemented extensive preparedness measures:

• Building Inventory: Assessment of all structures near fault for prioritized retrofitting
• Evacuation Centers: 150+ designated facilities with capacity for 500,000 displaced persons
• Emergency Response Teams: Trained barangay disaster response teams in all 142 barangays
• Communication Network: Redundant systems including amateur radyo operators
• Stockpiles: Pre-positioned relief goods at strategic locations
• Public Education: Quarterly community-based earthquake preparedness training

Business Continuity Planning

Businesses in Metro Manila, particularly those in financial services, IT, and critical industries, should maintain comprehensive business continuity and disaster recovery plans.

Essential Business Continuity Elements

• Risk Assessment: Evaluate building vulnerability and identify critical business functions
• Alternate Facilities: Identify backup locations outside high-risk zones
• Data Backup: Offsite data storage and cloud redundancy
• Supply Chain Resilience: Multiple suppliers and logistics alternatives
• Employee Safety: Evacuation plans, emergency communications, family support
• Financial Reserves: Adequate insurance coverage and cash reserves for operational continuity
• Regular Testing: Quarterly drills and annual BCP review/update

Long-Term Mitigation and Resilience Building

Structural Retrofitting Priorities

Public Schools

Over 2,000 school buildings in Metro Manila require seismic assessment and potential retrofitting. Department of Education (DepEd) is implementing a multi-year program to:

• Assess all school buildings within 200m of West Valley Fault
• Prioritize retrofitting based on student population and building vulnerability
• Construct new earthquake-resistant school buildings using modern codes
• Provide earthquake safety education integrated into curriculum

Healthcare Facilities

Department of Health (DOH) mandates all hospitals must meet enhanced seismic standards:

• Structural assessment of all existing facilities
• Retrofitting of critical tertiary hospitals in high-risk zones
• Non-structural safety (secure medical equipment, backup power, water storage)
• Surge capacity planning for mass casualty events

Land Use Planning and Building Code Enforcement

Fault Avoidance Zones

PHIVOLCS, in coordination with local governments, has established fault avoidance zones:

• No-Build Zone: 5 meters on either side of mapped fault trace (no new structures permitted)
• Restricted Zone: 5-20 meters from fault (special engineering required for any construction)
• High-Risk Zone: 20-200 meters from fault (enhanced seismic design kinakailangan)

Enforcement Challenges (2025):

• Thousands of existing structures within no-build zones (constructed before regulations)
• Informal settlements continue to expand in high-risk areas
• Limited resources for relocation and enforcement
• Political resistance to strict enforcement

Building Code Compliance and Enforcement

Key improvements needed:

• Mandatory third-party peer review for all structures >5 stories
• Special inspections during construction to ensure code compliance
• Penalties for engineers/contractors who violate seismic design kinakailangan
• Transparency in building permits and inspection reports
• Capacity building for local government building inspectors

Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction

Barangay-Level Preparedness

Barangays (smallest government unit) are mga first responders in disaster situations. Effective community preparedness includes:

• Hazard Mapping: Community-generated maps identifying vulnerable buildings, evacuation routes, safe zones
• Early Warning Dissemination: Trained personnel to receive and relay earthquake alerts
• Search and Rescue Teams: Basic training for community volunteers
• First Aid Training: Widespread community first responder certification
• Evacuation Drills: Regular practice of evacuation procedures
• Mutual Aid Networks: Organizing community support for vulnerable populations

Scientific Research and Future Developments

Ongoing Research on West Valley Fault

Paleoseismic Studies

Continued research aims to better understand fault behavior:

• Additional trenching studies to refine recurrence interval estimates
• Analysis of historical records and geological evidence
• 3D modeling of fault geometry and rupture scenarios
• Integration of geodetic data to assess current strain accumulation

Earthquake Scenario Modeling

Advanced simulations to improve impact prediction:

• High-resolution ground motion modeling using detailed soil maps
• Building-by-building damage assessment using AI and satellite imagery
• Agent-based modeling of evacuation and emergency response
• Economic impact modeling incorporating supply chain disruptions

Emerging Technologies for Earthquake Resilience

Advanced Structural Systems

• Base Isolation: Increasingly adopted in new high-value buildings, reduces shaking by 50-80%
• Energy Dissipation Devices: Dampers that absorb seismic energy, protecting structure
• Self-Centering Systems: Buildings that "bounce back" after earthquake with minimal damage
• Performance-Based Design: Engineering for specific performance objectives rather than just code minimum

Early Warning System Enhancement

• Machine Learning: AI algorithms to improve magnitude/intensity prediction accuracy
• Distributed Sensors: Low-cost accelerometers in smartphones for crowd-sourced monitoring
• Faster Alerts: Goal to reduce alert generation time to <5 seconds
• Automated Response: Integration with infrastructure (trains automatically slow/stop, elevators return to nearest floor)

Myths, Misconceptions, and Earthquake Preparedness Psychology

Common Myths About "The Big One"

Myth 1: "Scientists can predict when The Big One will happen"

Reality: No scientific method exists to predict the specific date, time, or exact location of an earthquake. Scientists can assess probability over timemga frames (e.g., "30% chance in next 50 years") but cannot provide short-term predictions.

Myth 2: "We'll have weeks of warning signs before The Big One"

Reality: Unlike volcanic eruptions, earthquakes typically occur without detectable precursors. While some earthquakes are preceded by foreshocks, many occur without any warning. The current Earthquake Early Warning system provides only 10-45 seconds warning after earthquake begins.

Myth 3: "Modern buildings are completely earthquake-proof"

Reality: No building is completely "earthquake-proof." Modern seismic codes design buildings to:

• Protect life (prevent collapse)
• Minimize injury
• Allow evacuation

Even well-designed buildings may sustain significant damage requiring expensive repairs or demolition after a major earthquake.

Myth 4: "Doorways are the safest place during an earthquake"

Reality: This outdated advice from the era of unreinforced masonry buildings is dangerous in modern structures. The correct action is "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" under a sturdy desk or table. Doorways offer no special protection and put you at risk of the door swinging and causing injury.

Myth 5: "Aftershocks are always smaller than the main earthquake"

Reality: While aftershocks are usually smaller, occasionally a larger earthquake can occur. What was initially thought to be the "main shock" may turn out to be a foreshock. Remain vigilant during the aftershock sequence.

Overcoming Complacency and Fatalism

Many Metro Manila residents exhibit either:

• Complacency: "It hasn't happened yet, so it won't happen to me"
• Fatalism: "Nothing I do will matter if The Big One hits"

Both attitudes are dangerous. Evidence from past earthquakes worldwide demonstrates:

• Prepared individuals and families have significantly better survival outcomes
• Simple preparedness measures (securing furniture, having mga suplay, knowing proper response) reduce injury and death by 30-50%
• Community preparedness dramatically improves recovery speed and resilience

Key Takeaways and Action Items

Essential Facts About West Valley Fault and "The Big One"

1. The Threat is Real and Imminent: A magnitude 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault is scientifically inevitable, possibly within our lifetimes
2. Metro Manila is Unprepared: Majority of buildings predate modern seismic codes; critical infrastructure is vulnerable
3. Casualties Could Be Catastrophic: 35,000-52,000 deaths, 100,000+ injuries, 2-3 million displaced
4. Economic Impact Will Be Nationwide: ₱3-4 trillion in direct losses, 10-15% GDP reduction
5. Recovery Will Take Years: Full restoration of infrastructure and economy could require 3-7 years
6. Individual Preparedness Saves Lives: Simple actions reduce injury and death significantly

Top 10 Actions Every Metro Manila Resident Should Take Now

1. Assess Your Personal Risk: Determine if you live/work near the fault; assess your building's vulnerability
2. Secure Your Home: Anchor heavy furniture, install cabinet latches, move beds away from hazards
3. Build Emergency Supplies: Minimum 72 hours, ideally 1-2 weeks of water, food, mga suplay
4. Create Family Emergency Plan: Meeting points, out-of-town contact, communication protocol
5. Learn and Practice "Drop, Cover, Hold On": Quarterly earthquake drills with entire family
6. Obtain Earthquake Insurance: Protect your most valuable asset from catastrophic loss
7. Build Financial Reserves: 3-6 months expenses; physical cash for immediate post-earthquake period
8. Know How to Shut Off Utilities: Gas, water, electricity (prevent fires and further damage)
9. Connect with Community: Join barangay disaster preparedness programs; support vulnerable neighbors
10. Stay Informed: Follow PHIVOLCS and NDRRMC for official information; download earthquake alert apps

Conclusion: From Awareness to Action

The West Valley Fault poses the single greatest natural disaster risk to Metro Manila and the Pilipinas. While we cannot prevent "The Big One" from occurring, we can dramatically reduce its impacts through comprehensive preparedness at individual, community, institutional, and governmental levels.

The question is not "if" but "when" this earthquake will strike. Every day of delay in preparedness is a day of increased vulnerability for millions of Filipinos living and working in the shadow of this active fault.

The time to act is now—not after the first violent tremors shake us from our complacency, but today, while we still have the luxury of time to prepare, plan, and build resilience. The lives saved by preparedness actions taken today could include your own and those of everyone you love.

Additional Resources

• PHIVOLCS: www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph (fault maps, earthquake bulletins, preparedness guides)
• NDRRMC: www.ndrrmc.gov.ph (disaster preparedness resources, emergency protocols)
• Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA): Earthquake preparedness campaigns and evacuation plans
• Ready.gov (US FEMA): International best practices for earthquake preparedness (adapt to Pilipino context)
• Great ShakeOut (global earthquake drill): www.shakeout.org/philippines
• Pilipino Red Cross: Disaster preparedness training and community programs

References

1. PHIVOLCS. "Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS)." Updated 2023 in partnership with JICA.
2. Nelson, A. et al. "Paleoseismic Evidence of Recent Earthquakes Along the West Valley Fault, Pilipinas." Pilipino Journal of Science, 2020.
3. JICA. "The Study on Improvement of Earthquake and Volcano Monitoring System Project." Final Report 2023.
4. NDRRMC. "National Disaster Response Plan for Metro Manila Earthquake Scenario." 2024.
5. Rimando, R.E. & Knuepfer, P.L. "Neotectonics of the Marikina Valley Fault System (MVFS) and Tectonic Framework of Structures in Northern and Central Luzon, Pilipinas." Tectonophysics, 2006.
6. World Bank. "Pilipinas: Building Resilience to Natural Hazards - West Valley Fault Assessment." 2024.
7. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC). "Enhancing Urban Resilience: Metro Manila Case Study." 2023.